This Week’s Trenton Musings….
Quinnipiac Twists Public Opinion
May 18, 2012
53 percent of New Jerseyans support same-sex marriage, says Quinnipiac (again). Really? Or are pollsters trying to sway public opinion rather than describe it? A new Quinnipiac poll not only claims 53-42 percent support for same-sex “marriage” in New Jersey, but implies that its opponents are a dying breed. Support among respondents under 35 was 77 percent; 58 percent among respondents between 35 and 54. Only among voters over 55 does opposition prevail, at 53-41 percent.
Seems straightforward. Problem is, it’s not. This issue is a lot more complicated than just asking one simple question. Experience in over thirty states shows that polls consistently overestimate support for same-sex “marriage.” In every state where marriage has come up for a vote, the people have voted by strong majorities to preserve marriage as the union of one man and one woman. We say elections are the only polls that really count. Proponents of same-sex “marriage” know this, which is why they fight tooth and nail to keep it out of the ballot box. So what good does it do to skew the numbers? Let’s look at the psychology of polling to find out.
Quinnipiac gave respondents an up-or-down choice on same-sex marriage. Most people want to recognize the basic dignity of homosexual persons, so this sort of bald oversimplifying usually pushes those unsure about the facts to support same-sex “marriage” when polled by organizations like Quinnipiac. However, when pollsters add a question about the civil unions option, support for same-sex marriage drops dramatically. Why? People know that marriage is natural, and if given the choice, many don’t endorse the radical social overhaul that same-sex “marriage” represents, although they may still support some form of recognition for same-sex relationships. A fair takeaway is that most Americans think homosexuals deserve respect—which sounds like the sentiment of a fair and generous people.
But there is a very big difference between feeling that it’s a good idea to respect homosexuals and going to bat for the radical redefinition of a cultural institution that has served us well for millennia. Most Americans are mindful of this, which is why, when push comes to shove, they prefer marriage to remain the union of one man and one woman. Pollsters know it, too. The advantage of fudging this distinction for pro-same-sex “marriage” organizations is that it creates a sense of cultural consensus—which applies peer pressure on behalf of same-sex “marriage.” This tactic is dubious at best, dishonest at worst.
The public opinion machines have been polling about same-sex marriage ad nauseam for the last six months. It’s time to set that aside for a little while and focus on finding out what people really think at the ballot box. But while we question the poll’s findings on marriage, we have no difficulty believing its other results: that 73 percent of New Jerseyans support the Governor’s proposal for private school scholarships funded by tax-deductible donations. All parents want the best for their children, and the NJEA has so far done an excellent job of putting a stranglehold on educational opportunity in low-income areas. Parents are tired of this. No wonder the Opportunity Scholarship Act and similar reforms have gathered so much support. An educated child benefits everyone. It’s time to release the OSA for a vote and give low-income children a chance.
